Friday, April 14, 2006

Off-Season Scenario 3

In a draft day trade, Portland trades Steve Blake to the Los Angeles Lakers for Von Wafer and the Laker's first round pick in 2007.

In the draft, Portland takes Adam Morrison with our first rounder, Craig Smith with Detroit's pick and Justin Williams with our second rounder.

Portland trades Zach Randolph, Outlaw and Dixon to the Pacers for Jermaine O'Neil.

Portland trades Darius Miles, Brian Skinner and Theo Ratliff to New York for Jalen Rose and Maurice Taylor.

Portland buys out Maurice Taylor.

Portland re-signs Joel Pryzbilla to the Early Bird Exception.

Portland waives Ha.

Portland signs Reggie Evans to the Mid Level Exception.

Portland signs Penny Hardaway to the Veteran's Exception.

Portland signs Stacey Augmon to the Lower Level Exception.

Portland signs Ervin Johnson to the NBA Minimum.

PG: Telfair, Jack, Hardaway
SG: Webster, Augmon, Wafer
SF: Kryhapa, Morrison, Rose
PF: O'Neil, Evans, Smith
C: Pryzbilla, Williams, Johnson

WHERE THIS LEAVES US:

Going into next year, we would have deep, solid rotations at every postion. And we would have Jermaine O'Neil-enough said about that. The young guys, Pryz and Jermaine would get most of the minutes, but there is enough veteran depth to help when needed. We add two monster rebounders in Evans and Smith to aid our woes in that area, and toughen up defensively with O'Neil, Evans, Augmon, Rose and Hardaway. Williams takes the role of shot-blocker, and should perform very well. Perimeter shooting and the offense in general is bolstered with Morrison and the continued development of Martell Webster, Sebastian Telfair and a 100% healthy Jarret Jack. Most importantly, this offseason scenario brings in several classy veteran guys (Hardaway, Augmon, Johnson) who play the right way with grit, defense and hustle, know what it takes to win, set good examples and are good locker room presences. This move also leaves us with roughly 7 million dollars in cap room for next off-season.

10 Comments:

At 4:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

i think we should not give up on outlaw yet. He has shown us that he can play in the past few games, people sometimes forget that is a youngster too.

-Zach z

 
At 9:43 AM, Anonymous Mortimer said...

These are all really interesting scenarios, good work putting them together...

But the "early Bird Rights" for Pryzbilla... is that the same as owning his "Bird rights"? My understanding is that we don't own his Bird rights because we only signed him to a 2 year contract... so all we can offer him is the mid-level exception (MLE).

OR, we offer him the MLE for one year, THEN we own his Bird rights and can sign him for whatever we want. Joel has mentioned this in interviews as a possibility, and I _could_ see it happening, although I bet someone (an agent, a wife) will talk Joel out of that because he can be injury prone... and signing 1 year is really risky.

AND, because Joel is injury prone... we really need to NOT overpay for him. He is great, I love him, he works hard and is a perfect guy for the Blazers. He may never score more than 5 points a game and that's perfectly fine... but he is NOT an elite center, and should not be paid like he is.

I think the MLE, which will be between 5-6 million a year over 5 or 6 years, is more than enough money.

Keep in mind, I want us to keep Joel very badly. But overpaying at this time is a bad idea... plus, his injuries...

Speaking of "elite centers"... it's amazing how the position of center has fallen to such a state that guys like Dampier and Adonal Foyle and Ilgauskas and (soon to be) Pryzbilla are sought after, highly paid centers...

In the 90's, these guys would have a problem starting, let alone making 8 to 11 million a year.

Aside from Shaq and (now) Yao Ming, who is REALLY an elite center? I remember all the grief Blazer fans gave Duckworth back in the day, and now I know we just didn't know how good we had it. If The Duck played in this era, he'd be the third best center in the league.

Although I have fond memories of Duckworth, I am trying to build a time machine so I can kidnap Sabonis from Lithuania and get a healthy, young version over to the Blazers in time for us to win 6 straight championships.

If you guys haven't seen games from his healthy days, try to find them somehow. He was amazing... possibly the best center ever.

No hyperbole!

Ok... that's my rambling for the day. Thanks for the compliment below, Sean, and thanks for making such an interesting blog! I like hearing what ya got to say...

I'm just a big Blazer fan.

Mortimer

 
At 9:50 AM, Blogger Sean said...

Haha thanks. To clarify...we own Pryzbilla's Early Bird Rights. This means that we can resign him to the Early Bird Exception, which is the equivalent of the MLE for that given year. So, we can only give him 5 million or so for 6 years with 10.5% raises, but we can write it off as another exception and still have the MLE available for use on other players.

 
At 10:04 AM, Anonymous Mortimer said...

Oh!

Well, that's pretty cool. Thanks for looking into that, I didn't realize.

I'd say that's a good price for Pryzbilla.

Mortimer

 
At 10:07 AM, Blogger Sean said...

yeah it's kinda a little known fact but i double checked it with John Nash himself so...

 
At 10:14 AM, Anonymous Mortimer said...

I noticed waiving Ha is a repeated part of the scenarios...

While obviously Ha sucks now, and I can't honestly judge whether he'll ever be more than a curiosity of a basketball player, do you think the Blazers will waive him?

All the coaches say he's improving, he's very young, and maybe once he gets some braces for his teeth and a post game he might be decent. Who knows?

I think they'll keep him around... SUPPOSEDLY, he's around the same place Yao Ming was at at the same age. SUPPOSEDLY. I have no way to verify that.

Also, we can't underestimate the fact that Ha's jersey is the top selling jersey in all of Korea... that's a pretty fair amount of scratch.

Remember the Japanese guard the Suns signed last year? They held onto him long enough for a billion jerseys to be sold in Japan, then cut him before contracts were guaranteed. Kinda a dickhead move, but a smart one by the Suns.

Jersey sales aside, I say we keep Ha just to see. I don't have high hopes, but scouts and coaches see something in him... and he's always good for an awkward foul or six.

I worry about his work ethic (came to camp out of shape this season, which is inexcusable), but if he stays in America this off season and works with trainers and coaches... oh hell, I dunno.

I can't tell with Ha.

We should at least be able to trade him for a draft pick; he's cheap and people love projects. And, you'd OWN South Korea's jersey market.

Mortimer

 
At 10:24 AM, Blogger Sean said...

True...all your points about Ha are totally legit. And while the Blazers do need all the dough they can scrounge up, I would rather have the roster spot to use on someone like Justin Williams (aka Baby Theo), the huge shotblocking center from Wyoming, or veteran leadership like Ervin Johnson rather than another project such as Ha. Either one of those two will be worth more to our overall success in the long run then Ha.

By the way the dude from Japan's name is Yuta Tabuse...he's in the D-League now.

And Ha's had the best selling jersey two years in a row now for the Blazers.

 
At 10:32 AM, Anonymous Mortimer said...

Yeah, I think I agree with ya... having a roster spot taken up by someone who can actually play would probably be a lot better.

So if we trade Ha, we better do it soon while he is still a project and not a bust...

It's hard for me to believe that Ha is so popular, but I guess he really is. I always thought the loud cheers when he checked into a game were sorta ironic cheers, but I guess not!

Anyways, good research, and very interesting scenarios...

Mortimer

 
At 10:45 AM, Blogger Sean said...

Thanks.

Yeah apparently they are pretty crazy about him overseas. Check scenario 4 for a scenario that keeps Ha while accomplishing our goals.

 
At 9:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

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